How the Trump Win Will Impact Real Estate

Anthony Lamacchia: Trump won. What does that mean for the real estate market? I’m here to talk to you about that and be nonpolitical. I want nothing to do with commenting on anything to do with politics or my personal positions. Over the years, I’ve made predictions before elections and after elections, including on the news, on what I expect for real estate with an election. Now that we know who the winner is, it’s time to talk openly about what I expect in the real estate market.

In this video, I’m going to cover total sales that I expect, I’m going to cover mortgage interest rates, I’m going to cover the Department of Justice, and I’m also going to cover something that I didn’t expect to yesterday at this time, which is Elon Musk’s interesting tweet at 11:50 last night. Let me get started. For those of you that are in the blue states, particularly the hardcore blue states, like one I’m sitting in right now in Massachusetts, you can expect sales or more so activity to decrease over the next four, six, eight weeks, which will impact the total amount of sales in December and in January.

That’s correct. I expect sales to go down. Why? Because people are frustrated. People that voted for Harris are frustrated at the result of the election. Just like Trump voters were frustrated in 2020. When people are frustrated, they’re feeling down, they didn’t get what they want. Some of them exaggerate on both sides, “Oh, if my candidate doesn’t win, the world’s going to end.” Now, we’ve got some of those on Harris’ side, on the Democrat side. Those folks need to get through the next couple of months, see that the world isn’t going to end.

See the stock market going up, which it already has started, and you watch in January, they’ll come out of the woodwork. Next 60 days, we’re going to see a slow period, particularly in the states that were won overwhelmingly by Democrats, which happens to be the markets that we are in. Then come January, you will see sales an activity take off like a jet. Every single time, there is a presidential election, the following January is very busy. I expect this one to be no different. Sales actually have slowed down over the last four weeks leading up to the election.

I think much of that is part of people’s paranoia about the election, wondering what to expect, wondering and worrying if their candidate would win, but also because of mortgage interest rates. End of the summer, rates went down. September, they went down more. There was people getting mortgages in the high fives, low sixes. October came, rates started going back up. Many experts feel, and I’m not totally convinced this is why, but many experts feel, it’s because the stock market did better because, this is the part I’m not convinced, of many people expecting a Trump victory.

It is common for the stock market to do better when Republicans win, because Republicans tend to be more pro-business, less regulation, et cetera. Markets usually are attracted to that. Last night, 10:30, 11:00, world market, stock markets started going up. The 10-year treasury started going up as well right behind it. I expect that we will see mortgage interest rates go up at least for the next few months. It might be as long as six months. It might be longer. I’m not sure. I’ll give you another prediction after the first of the year.

For right now, I’m telling you this, rates are going to head up, and that is because the stock market is going up. Over the long term, I do believe that rates will come down. As they do, I do believe that sales will go up. I believe they’ll go down for a multitude of economic, regulatory, and political reasons that frankly, I don’t really want to get into. There are many things that I think will happen that will help mortgage interest rates come back down to Earth.

For those of you that are excited about a Trump win and who are thinking that sales are going to just take off like a jet today, I think you’ll be disappointed, particularly those of you in the blue states. Now, for those of you in the red states that were won overwhelmingly by Trump, you may see a pickup in activity in the next couple of months. It might be more immediate for you, but it will not be immediate for those that are in the blue states. Now, I’ve spoken to you about what I expect with sales, I also talked to you about mortgage rates, which they’re somewhat tied together.

Next subject, Department of Justice. I’ve said in many of my videos that you can see any of them on RECases.com. I’ve been very bold with my statements for 13 months now about the ridiculous cases and about the atrocity that the Department of Justice has launched in tandem with the plaintiff’s lawyers at the real estate industry. It’s been a terrible thing to see. It’s been a disgusting display of government overreach. I’ve said that in many, many videos. A new regime is coming in. Anytime a new regime comes in, there are people particularly at the top of these agencies that get taken out, new people put in.

I’m willing to bet, the Department of Justice is going to cool their jets a little bit and maybe back off on many industries. There was a long article in the Wall Street Journal three weeks ago about how over 42% of large companies are being investigated or sued by the Department of Justice. Real estate industry has not been able to dodge that. I expect that they’re going to get their wings clipped. That is going to be a good thing for real estate and the brokerage business as a whole.

Elon’s tweet. Let’s take a look at this. I thought this was very interesting last night. It took me by surprise because they have really not mentioned this at all in any of the rallies or anything. Elon Musk sent a tweet out at 11:50 last night, “America is a nation of builders. Soon, you’ll be free to build.” No matter what side you’re on, if you have any understanding of real estate, you know that without a doubt, there’s been a lack of building in the United States for 15 years. Why? Many reasons.

Number one, the nimby attitude of many homeowners across the country, not in my backyard. Municipalities have taken their regulations way too far. The red tape is beyond excessive. I’ve been a licensed builder here in Massachusetts since I was 22 years old. That’s 21 years of being a licensed builder. Every two years, I have to go for continuing education, and every two years, they make it more expensive to build, more complicated to build. Then what happens? More builders get away from building.

The mix of those three things is the reason that prices have gone up really too much, particularly since COVID. In the major cities, in the coastal cities, it’s become completely unaffordable. Completely. The amount of people that have moved from Massachusetts to New Hampshire and moved further out west in Massachusetts as an example, is growing at an astounding rate because people can’t afford the housing stock. If they unleash a building boom across America, it will help everyone. It’ll be great for jobs. It’ll be great for people buying and getting into home ownership.

Yesterday, at this time when I planned to do this video, regardless of who won, I wasn’t planning on that, but I thought it was noteworthy and worth mentioning to you all. Lastly, I want to close with this. We are in a housing recession of epic proportion. We’re talking 30 years since it’s been this slow, and by some measures, it’s 40 years. It’s 1983. This will end. It will end at some point. I expect the second half of this decade to be the biggest five-year period in real estate that anyone’s ever seen.

The amount of homes sold went over 6 million in 2021 across the United States. We’re going to crush numbers like that in the second part of this decade. If you’re disappointed about Trump winning, think about that. If you’re happy Trump won, don’t be so happy yet if you’re in a blue state because the next couple of months are going to be slow. The overarching big picture is we’re going to have a boom like no one’s ever seen in the second part of this decade.

If you think I’m being political because Trump won, go look at other videos that I’ve done. Market updates on the Lamacchia Realty website, and you’ll see I’ve been saying that for three years. I still expect it. That’s all. Good luck. Happy home selling.

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